Sep 22 2022 08:03 a.m
The military historian Bastian Scianna from the University of Potsdam analyzes the consequences of the announced partial mobilization in Russia. The use of nuclear weapons is not excluded in an attack by Ukraine against Russia. Russia will defend its territory with nuclear weapons.
In an interview with the Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung military historian Bastian Matteo Scianna from the University of Potsdam warned against underestimating the Russian threat of nuclear military strikes in the Ukraine war. This reported MMnews on Wednesday, citing the historian’s statements to the NUT.
According to Scianna, the partial mobilization initially indicates the further use of conventional means,
“to improve the military situation in his favor and to secure his illegal conquests politically”.
The historian, on the other hand, has a different assessment of the possible consequences of attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory. In this case, Russia could also defend its territory with nuclear weapons, according to Scianna in the NUT:
“[Man]should … never dismiss a Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons as completely unrealistic in the event of an operational advance by Ukraine, especially since it is part of the Russian nuclear doctrine to always defend one’s own territory with nuclear weapons as well.”
The military historian also warned that Putin would not stand idly by if the territorial gains achieved through “criminal raids” were threatened. With regard to the goals of the referendums in the Donbass republics, Scianna described that on the one hand Moscow wants to do this
“Strengthen the ‘narrative that the West is threatening Russian territories and that you are protecting the local population and ensuring the country’s territorial integrity'”.
On the other hand, it would be easier to justify possible countermeasures in the event of further Ukrainian offensives. “Another offensive by the Ukrainians would hit ‘Russian territory’, which should make any countermeasures easier and more popular for Putin.”
Scianna sees Russian President Vladimir Putin “politically on the defensive.” It is currently unclear what use partial mobilization will have for the course of the war. Scianni explained:
“As more reserves are brought in, the often emaciated formations at the contact line will probably first be replenished or replaced to give them a break. But it is questionable what military value the reservists have: can they be equipped and supplied accordingly, and with how much Will you be enthusiastic about your task?”
He therefore recommended that the Western Allies “do not panic” in view of this measure [zu] Rather, they make it clear “that military successes, which are also based on Western arms deliveries, can get Putin into political difficulties.”
more on the subject – The Ukraine conflict – can there be a solution despite everything? Part 1